Where now...

So. The public has spoken, and with resounding clarity they have told the main political parties 'none of you on your own, thanks very much'.

It was an odd evening. I had expected (and hoped) that the Liberal Democrats would perform better in terms of seats (they did, after all, increase their vote share). It was a shame they could not have performed slightly better in the South West, which would have seen them a few seats higher. I say it was odd though, because all of the parties did very well in some seats (LD in Redcar being a case in point), but spectacularly badly in others. There were no patterns to really be picked up throughout the evening.

The only thing that the election did show is that FPTP is no longer fit for purpose. It is vastly weighted towards the Labour party, and does not encourage voters to engage with the electoral process. If the Tories could not win a majority in this election, it is unlikely they ever will win one. FPTP is broken. It will give us Labour or nothing.

So, where now?

I agree with Nick (sorry!) that David Cameron should have the first attempt at forming a government. His party did earn the most votes and the most seats (indeed, they had the same share of the vote as Labour in 2005), and therefore should try to form a government. What worries me is the content of any deal that will be struck between the Tories and LibDems. As outlined in my previous post, I am wary of a Tory government. And while a Tory/LibDem coalition might be more palatable, I do worry that the difference that exist between the parties on tax, Europe, voting reform, education and others are simply too great to be overcome.

But what other option does Clegg have? To allow a Tory minority government to struggle on for a few months before another election could have bad consequences for the country and its finances, but also for the LibDems at a future election (voters would be more likely to come out for Labour or the Tories so we got a decisive decision. The Tories could also blame the LibDems for the worsening state of the economy - 'We offered a deal; they said no. Blame them, not us')

Were he to go into a deal with Labour, there could be the same problems. It would be a minority coalition (I do not buy the idea of a 'progressive alliance - SNP and PC will not be constructive players in a UK government ) and as such would not last for long before another election is called. This would again harm the LibDems, and could back any chance of much-needed electoral reform.

Reluctantly, I think that Clegg needs to strike a deal with the Tories. It must, however, include guarantees on electoral reform. Personally, I would like to see AV in the Commons, and STV for the Lords, with the European regions used for the upper chamber. This would allow constituencies to remain in the Commons, but a representative upper house with increased powers and a mandate to provide proper checks on the government. This is the sort of deal that Clegg needs to push for in the negotiations. He is, however, in a hellish position. Get it wrong now, and the party (and chance of electoral reform) could be thrown back to 1983.